According to an article in THE WALL STREET JOURNAL this week, the value of a foreclosed home is reduced, on average, a total of 27% below market value. The article went on to say that homes within 250 feet of the foreclosed property can expect a 1% reduction in value. This seems to be in line with what we are seeing in the Charlotte area market at the present time. Unfortunately, the number of distressed properties continues to accelerate at a very steady rate. So, we might expect that at least in the short term, the averages asserted by the WSJ article may be a little higher than normal.
You may be aware that one of the biggest sticking points in completing residential real estate transactions these days is the appraisal process. The market is changing almost hourly, making putting a price on property a very tricky business. Recently I heard an appraiser make a presentation regarding the guidelines appraisers must use when selecting comparable properties to use in their reports. He said that the residential home appraiser’s goal is to compare to “the same house, located next door, which sold yesterday, in an arms-length transaction.” In other words, the property should match the subject property as closely as possible, be located as close as possible & have sold as recently as possible. Additionally, the buyer & seller are typically motivated, well informed and acting in their own best interested, the property was on the market for a reasonable time, buyer is paying cash & the price represents the norm for the market. Obviously, this kind of comparable would be ideal. Obviously, as well, we do not live in an ideal world so it would be rare indeed to find an absolute comparable property.
Typically, Fannie Mae requires appraisers to stay within a subdivision or at least in an adjacent location when choosing comparables and they must use at least 3 closed comparable sales for their analysis of value. The problem of foreclosures comes into play when they comprise an inordinate share of any one subdivision’s number of closed sales. As the appraiser explained, if there are enough other current comparables available, the appraiser will not be required to consider the current foreclosures. However, it seems to stand to reason that foreclosures will have at least a minimal effect on home values no matter the neighborhood foreclosure rates.
Hopefully, this information gives you a little bit better understanding of the reasoning behind the appraisal process and of the difficulties we are having in trying to predict selling price in a time of declining prices.
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